The rest of the season is played out 10,000 times. Each simulated week draws every team's score from a blend of its projected lineup and what it has actually scored, then the league's tiebreaks and 6-team bracket settle the rest.
* 1.01 odds are approximate: next year's first rookie pick goes to the lowest Max PF among the teams that miss the playoffs.
Seasons simulated
10,000
Playoff spots
6
First-round byes
2
Seed
2028651051
Playoff and title odds
Season odds from 10,000 simulated seasons, ranked by title odds, then playoff odds
Team
Playoffs %
Title %
W-L
Exp wins
Bye %
Last %
1.01 %* (approximate)
PeterNjigba’s in Paris
Title odds over time
One board per team, one column per week, 5% per dot, ranked by the latest title odds. The big number is the latest run. Unlit columns are weeks still to come.
01PeterNjigba’s in Paris
43.4 percent43.4-6.5 since W7
100500
>99.9
43.4
4-2
8.7
79.3
0
0
Peter sits at 99.9 percent to make the playoffs with a 43.4 title shot, which is the only thing in his life currently projected to finish strong.
BrandonKraft YAC & Cheese
100
40.1
5-1
9.5
92.5
0
0
Brandon's 92.5 bye odds are the best in the league, proof that going 5-1 is easy when your schedule has been begging for mercy.
CarlosThe Mayeflower
99.4
10.5
4-2
7.9
22.6
0
0
Carlos is 99.4 percent in but only 10.5 percent to win it, a man guaranteed a seat at the table and nothing to eat once he gets there.
Navid
93.4
2.4
4-2
6.8
4.3
<0.1
<0.1
Navid's title odds round down to 2.4 percent, which is roughly his odds of remembering he also has a last name.
JustinShough and Fhough
86.2
1.8
3-3
6.2
1.2
0.3
0
Justin is 86.2 percent to make the field and 1.8 percent to matter once he's there, the fantasy equivalent of getting invited and not asked to dance.
EthanLove on the Spectrum
51.3
1.3
2-4
4.7
<0.1
2.8
0
Ethan's playoff odds are a coin flip at 51.3 percent, and his 4.7 expected wins say the coin is rigged against him.
Anish
36.6
0.4
2-4
4.7
<0.1
4.8
0.1
Anish carries a 4.8 percent shot at finishing last, tied in expected wins with Ethan but with none of Ethan's coin-flip dignity.
Alex
16.4
0.1
2-4
4.1
0
12.1
3.1
Alex is sitting at 16.4 percent for the playoffs and 12.1 percent for finishing dead last, a man hedged against his own mediocrity.
DevanteLet A Naysayer Know
15.0
<0.1
2-4
4.2
0
17.1
12.4
Devante's 17.1 percent odds of finishing last are higher than his 15 percent odds of making the playoffs, which is its own kind of consistency.
Most likely to finish last: Matthew
1.7
0
2-4
3.2
0
62.8
84.3
Matthew is 1.7 percent to make the playoffs and 62.8 percent to finish last, a stat line that reads less like a forecast and more like a verdict.
Ranked by title odds, then playoff odds.Likeliest to finish last